Impacts Of Climate Change On Wheat In England And Wales

Extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how this might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses from drought or heat stress will increase in future.


Using crop simulation models combined with climate scenarios, it was demonstrated that despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the impact of drought stress on wheat yield is likely to decrease, because wheat will mature earlier avoiding severe drought.


However, the probability of heat stress around flowering resulting in considerable yield losses may increase significantly.


Breeding strategies might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature, rather than to drought.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface


Journal of the Royal Society Interface is the Society's cross-disciplinary publication promoting research at the interface between the physical and life sciences. It offers rapidity, visibility and high-quality peer review and is ranked fifth in JCR's multidisciplinary category. The journal also incorporates Interface Focus, a peer-reviewed, themed supplement, each issue of which concentrates on a specific cross-disciplinary subject.


Journal of the Royal Society Interface